Andrew W. Ellis

• Introduction to Earth’s Climate (GEOG 1524)
• Dynamic Meteorology I (GEOG 3515)
• Dynamic Meteorology II (GEOG 3516)
• Physical Meteorology (GEOG 4524)
• Undergraduate Research (MTRG 4994)

• Bright Samson. 2024. M.S. Station-based analysis of variability and change in the Nigerian hydroclimate.
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Zachary Van Tol. 2021. M.S. Analysis of Urban Heat Island
  Intensity Through Air Mass Persistence.
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Michael L. Marston. 2020. Ph.D. Variation and Change in Daily Precipitation Extremes Across the United States Since the Mid-20th Century.
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Aaron Whittemore. 2020. M.S. Analysis of Human Influence on Drought Conditions in the Upper Colorado River Basin (Texas).
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Timothy Greene. 2018. M.S. The Impact of Synoptic Weather on the Ice Phenology of Maine Lakes, 1955-2005.
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Suzanna Lindeman. 2018. M.S. Assessment of Model Forecast Temperature Bias During Cold-Air Damming in the Central Appalachian Mountains.
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Jessica Suggs. 2017. M.S. Long-Term Changes in Synoptic-Scale Air Mass Persistence across the United States.
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Michael Marston. 2016. Analysis of Extreme Reversals in Seasonal and Annual Precipitation Anomalies across the United States, 1895-2014.
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Ashley Athey. 2015. M.S. Verification of Satellite-Derived Precipitation Estimates over Complex Terrain: A Ground Truth Analysis for Nepal. 
  Professor: Andrew Ellis
• Paul Miller. 2014. M.S. The Utility of Total Lightning in Diagnosing Single-Cell Thunderstorm Severity in the Central Appalachian Mountains Region.
  Professor: Andrew Ellis

Skill analysis of contemporary operational model forecasts of mixed-precipitation events: guidance for the National Weather Service in the mid-Atlantic region.
Sponsor: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, COMET Program.
Investigator(s): Ellis AW, SE Zick, SJ Keighton.
Amount: $19,325
2019

The utility of total lightning for warning of pulse-type thunderstorms within the central Appalachian Mountains region.
Sponsor: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research COMET Program, National Weather Service.
Investigator(s): Ellis AW, SJ Keighton.
Amount: $19,500
2013

Analysis of the sensitivity of the Salt River Project reservoir system to climate variability and change.
Sponsor: Salt River Project
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW
Amount: $28,842
2011

Decision Center for a Desert City II: urban climate adaptation.
Sponsor: National Science Foundation
Investigator(s): Gober, PA, CL Redman, et al.
Amount: $7,499,000
2010

Spatial and temporal analysis of climatological variations in isentropic surfaces.
Sponsor: National Science Foundation
Investigator(s): Cerveny, RS, RC Balling Jr, AW Ellis
Amount: $99,426
2008

Utilizing the hydroclimatic index in drought forecasting and climate scenario building for the Colorado River basin.
Sponsor: Bureau of Reclamation
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW, RC Balling Jr
Amount: $65,079
2008

Instituting multi-scale hydroclimatic indices in drought monitoring and mitigation in Arizona.
Sponsor: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Transition Program
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW, GM Garfin
Amount: $172,646
2007

Arizona drought monitoring sensitivity and verification analyses.
Sponsor: University of Arizona Water Sustainability Program – Technology and Research Initiative Fund
Investigator(s): Castro, CL, MA Crimmins, G Garfin, AW Ellis, F Dominguez
Amount: $50,000
2007

Assessment of the Navajo Nation hydroclimate network.
Sponsor: Arizona Water Institute
Investigator(s): Garfin, GM, AW Ellis, NJ Selover, D Anderson, A Tecle, M Crimmins, J Leeper, T Showa
Amount: $58,906
2006

Development of an operational model series for forecasting runoff on the Salt, Tonto, and Verde watersheds.
Sponsor: Salt River Project
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW, RC Balling Jr, RS Cerveny
Amount: $45,243
2005

Development of a winter season precipitation forecast model for Arizona.
Sponsor: Salt River Project
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW
Amount: $41,472
2004

Evaluating and modeling snowpack evolution in Arizona.
Sponsor: Salt River Project
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW
Amount: $19,743
2003

Operationalization of the algorithms for seasonal monsoon intensity prediction (ASMIP).
Sponsor: Salt River Project
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW
Amount: $19,227
2002

Development of the North American monsoon dataset.
Sponsor: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW
Amount: $4,969
2002

Atmospheric, hydroclimatic, and anthropogenic causes of fugitive dust in the Nogales, Arizona/Sonora airshed.
Sponsor: Southwest Center for Environmental Research and Policy (SCERP), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW, RC Balling Jr
Amount: $57,044
2001

Development of the ‘algorithms for seasonal monsoon intensity prediction (ASMIP)’ package for utilities planning and management.
Sponsor: Salt River Project
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW
Amount: $40,268
2001

Multi-scale atmospheric analysis of particulate concentration and flow in the Douglas-Agua Prieta airshed.
Sponsor: Southwest Center for Environmental Research and Policy (SCERP), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW, HJS Fernando
Amount: $67,239
2000

A potential forecasting tool for the Arizona monsoon: The North American snow cover teleconnection.
Sponsor: Salt River Project
Investigator(s): Ellis, AW
Amount: $18,523
2000

• Ellis, AW 2023. Cool season near-surface wind speed trends across the central Appalachian Mountains region of the eastern United States, 1995-2022. Physical Geography, 45(1), 106–124. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2023.2275815
• Van Tol Z, AW Ellis. 2022. Analysis of urban heat island intensity through air mass persistence: a case study of four United States Cities. Urban Climate.
   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101345
• Ellis AW, Z Suriano. 2022. A hybrid dataset of historical cool-season lake effects from the eastern Great Lakes of North America. Frontiers in Water, Special Issue: Hydroclimatology of the Great Lakes Region of North America.
   https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.788493
• Ellis AW, SJ Keighton, SE Zick, AS Shearer, CE Hockenbury, A Silverman.  2022. Analysis of model thermal profile forecasts associated with winter mixed-precipitation within the United States mid-Atlantic region. Journal of Operational Meteorology. 10 (1) 1-17.
   https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2022.1001
• Marston ML, AW Ellis. 2021. Regional-scale variability and change in daily precipitation across the contiguous United States, 1949-2018. International Journal of Climatology.
   https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7061
• Mahdu O, AW Ellis. 2021. Perceptions and realities of hydroclimatic change affecting Guyanese rice farming. Climate Risk Management. 33: 1-14. 
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100341
• Marston ML, AW Ellis. 2020. Delineating precipitation regions of the contiguous United States from cluster analyzed gridded data. Annals of the American Association of Geographers.
   https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2020.1828803
• Ellis AW, ML Marston. 2020: Late 1990s cool season climate shift in eastern North America. Climatic Change.
   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02798-z
• Ellis AW, ML Marston, J Bahret. 2020: Changes in the frequency of cool season lake-effects within the North American Great Lakes region. Annals of the American Association of Geographers.
   https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2020.1785270
• Marston ML, AW Ellis. 2019: Uniformity in the temporal distribution of precipitation through seasonal and annual timeframes across the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, 1950-2017. Climate Research, 78, 69-81. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01561
• Ellis AW, T Greene. 2019: Synoptic climate evidence of a late-twentieth century change to earlier spring ice-out on Maine lakes, USA. Climatic Change, 153(3), 323-339.
  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02398-6
• Murphy KW, AW Ellis. 2019: An Analysis of Past and Present Megadrought Impacts Upon a Modern Water Resource System. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(1), 45-65. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019/1571274
• Marston ML, AW Ellis. 2018: Extreme reversals in successive winter season precipitation anomalies across the western United States, 1895-2015. International Journal of Climatology, 38(3), 1520-1532. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5263
• Ellis AW, M Marston, D Nelson. 2018: An air mass-derived cool season climatology of synoptically forced Appalachian cold-air damming. International Journal of Climatology, 38(2), 530-542. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5189 
• Ellis AW, K Sauter. 2017: The significance of snow to surface water supply: An empirical case study from the southwestern United States. Physical Geography, 38(3), 211-230. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2017.1281014
• Ellis AW, P Miller. 2016: The emergence of lightning in severe thunderstorm prediction and the possible contributions from spatial science. Geography Compass, 10(5), 192-206. https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12265
• Miller P, AW Ellis, S Keighton. 2015: The utility of total and cloud-to-ground lightning trends in diagnosing ordinary thunderstorm severity in the central Appalachians region. Journal of Operational Meteorology, 3, 82-98. http://dx.doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2015.0308
• Miller P, AW Ellis, S Keighton. 2015: Spatial distribution of lightning associated with low-shear thunderstorm environments in the central Appalachians region. Physical Geography, 36, 127-141. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2015.1011257
• Miller P, AW Ellis, S Keighton. 2015: A preliminary assessment of using spatiotemporal lightning patterns for a binary classification of thunderstorm mode. Weather and Forecasting, 30, 38-56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00024.1
• Murphy KW, AW Ellis. 2014: An Assessment of the stationarity of climate and stream flow in watersheds of the Colorado River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 509, 454-473. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.056
• Ellis AW, NP Barton. 2012: Characterizing the North Pacific jet stream for understanding historical variability in western United States winter precipitation. Physical Geography, 33, 105-128. https://doi.org/10.2747/0272-3646.33.2.105
• Cerveny RS, K DeBiasse, MB Pace, AW Ellis, RC Balling Jr. 2011: Reanalysis and Extension of Namias’ climatological isentropic analysis: detection and evaluation of monsoonal, severe storm, drought, and flood events. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 101:6, 1204-1220. https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2011.584280
• Gober PA, CW Kirkwood, RC Balling Jr, AW Ellis, S Deitrick. 2010: Water planning under climatic uncertainty in Phoenix: why we need a new paradigm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 100, 356-372. https://doi.org/10.1080/00045601003595420
• Svoma BM, RC Balling Jr, AW Ellis. 2010: Analysis of soil moisture trends in the Salt River watershed of central Arizona. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 102, 159-169.
  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0255-1
• Hawkins TW, AW Ellis. 2010: The dependency of streamflow on antecedent subsurface moisture in an arid climate. Journal of Arid Environments, 74(1), 75-86.
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.07.003
• Ellis AW, GB Goodrich, GM Garfin. 2010: A hydroclimatic index for examining patterns of drought in the Colorado River basin. International Journal of Climatology, 30, 236-255. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1882
• Barton NP, AW Ellis. 2009: Variability in the wintertime position and strength of the North Pacific jet stream as represented by re-analysis data. International Journal of Climatology, 29(6), 851-862. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1750
• Ellis AW, TW Hawkins, RC Balling Jr, P Gober. 2008: Estimating future runoff levels for a semi-arid fluvial system in central Arizona, USA. Climate Research, 35, 227-239.
  https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00727
• Goodrich GB, AW Ellis. 2008: Climatic controls and hydrologic impacts of a recent extreme seasonal precipitation reversal in Arizona. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 498-508. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1627.1
• Hawkins TW, AW Ellis. 2007: A case study of the energy budget of a snowpack in the arid, subtropical climate of the southwestern United States. Journal of the Arizona-Nevada Academy of Sciences, 39, 1-13.
  https://doi.org/10.2181/1533-6085(2007)39[1:ACSOTE]2.0.CO;2
• Goodrich GB, AW Ellis. 2006: Climatological drought in Arizona: an analysis of indicators for guiding the Governor’s Drought Task Force. The Professional Geographer, 58, 460-469. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9272.2006.00582.x
• Ellis AW, DA Brommer, RC Balling Jr. 2006: Climatic conditions linked to high PM10 concentration in a bi-national airshed: Nogales, Arizona (USA) and Sonora (Mexico). Climate Research, 30, 113-124. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr030113
• Ellis AW, JJ Johnson. 2004: Hydroclimatic analysis of snowfall trends associated with the North American Great Lakes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5, 471-486.
  https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0471:HAOSTA>2.0.CO;2
• Ellis AW, EM Saffell, TW Hawkins. 2004: A method for defining monsoon onset and demise in the southwestern USA. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 247-265. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.996
• Saffell EM, AW Ellis. 2002: Urban-rural humidity variations in Phoenix. Journal of the Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 34, 53-64. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40024903
• Hawkins TW, AW Ellis, JA Skindlov, D Reigle. 2002: Intra-annual analysis of the North American snow cover-monsoon teleconnection: seasonal forecasting utility. Journal of Climate, 15, 1743-1753. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1743:IAAOTN>2.0.CO;2
• Ellis AW, JR Paul. 2001: Temporal patterns of diurnal snowmelt across the Northern Great Plains of the United States. Physical Geography, 22, 59-78. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2001.10642730
• Ellis AW, TW Hawkins. 2001: An apparent atmospheric teleconnection between snow cover and the North American monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 2653-2656.
  https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL006125
• Ellis AW, ML Hildebrandt, HJS Fernando. 2000: Evidence of lower atmospheric ozone “sloshing” in an urbanized valley. Physical Geography, 20, 520-536. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.1999.10642694
• Ellis AW, ML Hildebrandt, WM Thomas, HJS Fernando. 2000: Analysis of the climatic mechanisms contributing to the summertime transport of lower atmospheric ozone within metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, USA. Climate Research, 15, 13-31. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr015013
• Leathers DJ, AJ Grundstein, AW Ellis. 2000: An evaluation of growing season moisture deficits across the northeast United States. Climate Research, 14, 43-55.
  https://doi.org/10.3354/cr014043
• Ellis AW, DJ Leathers. 1999: Analysis of cold air mass temperature modification across the U.S. Great Plains as a consequence of snow depth and albedo. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 38, 696-710. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<0696:AOCATM>2.0.C);2
• Ellis AW, DJ Leathers. 1998: A quantitative approach to evaluating the effects of snow cover on cold air mass temperatures across the U.S. Great Plains. Weather and Forecasting, 13, 418-431. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0688:AQATET>2.0.CO;2
• Ellis AW, DJ Leathers. 1998: The effects of a discontinuous snow cover on lower atmospheric temperature and energy flux patterns. Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 2161-2164.
  https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL01582
• Ellis AW. 1996: Simulating the influence of Great Plains snow cover on the thermal characteristics of a cold air mass. Middle States Geographer, 29, 123-131.
• Leathers DJ, AW Ellis. 1996: Potential mechanisms associated with snowfall increases to the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1117-1135. 
  https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199610)16:10<1117::AID-JOC80>3.0.CO;2-4
• Ellis AW, DJ Leathers. 1996: A synoptic climatological approach to the analysis of lake-effect snowfall: potential forecasting applications. Weather and Forecasting, 11, 216-229. 
  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011%3C0216:ASCATT%3E2.0.CO;2
• Leathers DJ, AW Ellis, DA Robinson. 1995: Characteristics of temperature depressions associated with snow cover across the northeast United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 34, 381-390.
  https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450-34.2.381